Ann: Zoleo JV Arbitration Update, page-26

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dbd25

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26/05/24

12:05

Post #: 74012244
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Originally posted by Access2020: ↑

They are definitely not in a blackout period (yet). I’ve had that confirmed this week.

I’m not sure which way it will go but that’s not really the right question. The better question is for each scenario what is the potential outcome.

I’ve done some numbers. Now my starting assumption is that there will be an outcome either way. That means there are two ways it can go. We buy or we sell.

If we buy we need to account for 3 scenarios. All equity, all debt and a mix. All equity is by far the worst option but it’s still (slightly) accretive if we raise at say 10c. All debt is the best and a mix is in between. If we sell then the capital return is very big relative to the present share price. Thats also a very good option.

Well that’s my thinking and the company have guided to debt funding. So I’ve gamed all the scenarios and made a call - hence why I’ve been buying.

But this market is funny and there’s no guarantee on anything particularly at this end of the market. If I’m right I should do ok.

Expand

Its still not clear to me what BCC are getting out of the JV, but it appears to be the case that they are supplying Zoleos at cost price to the north american market. They dont seem to be sharing in the profits, otherwise we'd be seeing a clear uplift in revenues. Also, BCC seem to be saddled with any R&D costs needed for zoleo. My point is that if the JV is killed, at least the company wont have this anchor around its neck any more. Its a win, regardless of who ends up with what. I hope management have the gumption to argue and insist on a good deal.

all imho, dyor

BCC Price at posting: 12.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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