General Discussion Topics, page-139928

This might seem a strange think to say, but I actually think if the spod price drops to around $US950 in the next month and stays there until the end of 2024 that it might actually be an advantage to Sayona in the long run. The reason I say this is because PLL still require 110,000t over this quarter and the last two quarters of the year to satisfy their OTA with SYAQ. If we say NAL can produce 150,000t during those 3 quarters then that would only leave 40,000t left for the JV. Some of that 40,000t will be sold in this current quarter, so not much left for 2H24, therefore not much advantage for SYAQ if spod prices are higher.

Spod prices might as well be low if we SYAQ is selling the bulk to PLL, as long as it doesn't go below $US900. The key will be for SYA to get AISC to around $US750 or lower so SYAQ isn't selling at a loss to PLL. If we can do that then we can keep ramping up to maximum production rate while others will need to be cutting back or ceasing operations due to low spod prices. That will result in less world wide supply for 2H24, so that hopefully by the start of 2025 demand will outweigh supply and spod prices will rise just at the time that will benefit SYA the most.