Valuing ARU, page-60

So at this pointit is pretty hard to know:
- what SP they will raise at; and
- the amount they will raise. I believe wehave to take out the money spent to date (approx $150 million Dec 2022 raisebut there may be other design costs etc that can be taken out. Say another $20million)

- If we assume the total Project Cost is AUS$1.68 billion.
- We know they want to raise US $775 millionof debt (AUS $1.156 billion).
- That leaves about AUS $520 million
- Then take out about AUS $170 million
- Leaving about AUS $350 million to be raised fromequity.

Andlets assume they raise at about $0.40 (close to what Gina entered at)Thatresults in a 30% dilution.

Soat NdPr priced at :
- US $100 /kg a post raise SP of about $0.60.
- US $150 /kg a post raise SP of about $1.33.

Touse your example (which i believe has a low probability), $500m to be raised at$0.20.....results in dilution of 55%.
And at NdPr priced at :
- US $100 /kg a post raise SP of about $0.40.
- US $150 /kg a post raise SP of about $0.90.

Regardingthe ex China pricing:
- Our CEO has publically stated the off takeagreements are well above current prices and profitable for ARU. I would assumethe price to be somewhere between US $100-150/kg NdPr.
- The full effects of US tarrifs and upcomingEuro tarrifs are yet to be felt in pricing. Global businesses will always take thecheapest option. But that is why the US and Euro tarrifs are a game changer forARU. Also ESG will play a larger role in the years to come. Global businesseswill need to source all their rare earths from ex China supply. And ExChina supply is only 10% of worldproduction! And even without the ex China tailwind (or tornado), the demand from the energy transition will massivelyoutstrip supply. Have a read of the IEA reports.

All my analysis is "valuing" ARU. But it doesn't take into account the 'exuberance' effect that may occur. ARU has qualities that will appeal to the market in the future post FID:
- Energy transition
- Govt 'backed'
- ESG
- Long term

These four qualities will attract Superannuation funds. Have a look at BHP's slide in their bid for Anglo....superfunds make up about 50% of their shareholders. Currently ARU would have almost zero. Even if that percentage only went up to 10%.....that is massive buying!

Anyway...i bought a significant amount today against the bots. I'm ARU long.