Ann: Phosphate Fertilizer Project Update, page-173

I think this latest interview is a few weeks old despite being released yesterday, she says “following the update this week”. That was released on Wed 15th, the London 121 conference was on 15th & 16th. So the interview about the same time as the crux interview.

IMO satisfying the 3 IDC CPs are the key to Minbos’ success and also a rerate.

Listening to these 2 interviews (and writing down word for word what Lindsay says in relation to these CPs) it sounds like the Working Capital facility is highly likely to be done by the Angolan Banks.

The US$10m capex shortfall (less after our last CR) they seem to have a few avenues available namely the Angolan Banks and the strategic Investors. It sounds like Lindsay is more positive on the strategic investors. Having said that he’d just come out of meetings with them, so probably hadn’t had time to weigh that option up against the Banks which would be a decision for the Board. 2 weeks has since passed so progress might have been made on one or both of these avenues.

Converting the Carrinho MOU into a contract (the 3rd CP) should not present a problem. I can see why they’ve delayed it as the quantities seems to be changing - for the better. No point in signing a contract for 150kt pa when they may need significantly more. In any case Carrinho need Minbos as much as Minbos needs Carrinho, Presidential decree means they have to buy from us.

They’ve put the construction into 2 stages, with stage one ready to go on 2 weeks notice. Stage 1 costs US$5.5m and takes 5 months. If they secure this US$10m I wonder if they’ll start phase 1 construction while the other CPs are being met. Stage 2 costs $13.5m, also takes 5 months but can start 2 months after stage 1. Stage 2 needs the Carrinho US$14m to get under way. My point here is if they can get the $10m they can start stage 1 and they then have another 2 months (after July 31) to satisfy the remaining 2 CPs before causing delays.