MAY 6.06% 3.5¢ melbana energy limited

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  1. 7,633 Posts.
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    GB. You appear to be slightly bullish.

    A little bit of caution though. A lot of people were "caught" (bought too soon) circa the 6.3/6.4 level on the way down, and if they were lucky/bold enough didn't cut at 4.3 but held on for this exact recovery. I wouldn't be suprised to see some selling into any rally, particularly the first time up (i.e. it may take a couple of waves to break back to 7, so expect some choppiness).

    Also: There are still some risks (another spanner down the well, a blowout, a well collapse (they keep warning us about the fracturing), or some other unknown). The market won't completely de-disk this until after casing and after flow-testing. Realistically that could be 6 or so weeks away. I certainly won't breathe out until the 2 or 3 flow tests in Alameda have been conducted.

    Upside is massive, yes. If we get to that point and we have APIs north of that 24 mark (remembering that they have already stated that 19.8 works fine), good pressure and flow, and upgraded resource numbers from McDaniels, this would easily smack those valuations (19-23 cents, and likely to be upgraded by EvoCap post McDaniel's assessment) over the fence. No reason that this can't be up at those levels once de-risked, and once field development plans and sales contracts are formalised.

    Strap in. It's going North, but she could get bumpy.

    Kit.
 
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