Just thinking about this some more, the dots can be connected:
If contract negotiations have gone from 1600tpa > 2000tpa, this means:
- there was already 1600tpa being formalised into a contract (done deal - i.e. expect an announcement any day now)
- one offtaker was previously in discussions, but has now moved to formalising into a contract (done deal - i.e. expect an announcement soon)
- the extra 400tpa is moved from Advanced Offtake Discussions to Contract Negotiations
- therefore new one has signed up for for 400tpa
- before it was two, one from Japan and one from Europe for the 1600tpa
- Source: https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02798011-6A1203727
- now it is three, from Asia and Europe for 2000tpa
- Source: https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02811817-6A1209555
- so the new offtaker is from Asia or Europe (as noted US is out)
- why say Asia now when before it was listed as Japan? Because Asia covers more than one country and Japan is part of Asia
- so it must be another Asian country and it must be Korea (not another Japan or they would have left it as Japan, not China, and unlikely to be any other)
- aligns with the KEXIM in the finance stack (export-import bank of Korea), whereas EDC aligns with GE
What we now know
x+y+z = 2000tpa
x+y = 1600tpa, so therefore z = 400tpa
x = Japan (Toyota or Mitsubishi?)
y = Europe (GE Renewables)
z = Korea (POSCO)
Hyundai / Kia = 1500tpa
Siemens = 520tpa
-----------
Total 5 offtakers for 3,920 tpa
We will see an announcement shortly for POSCO + KEXIM similar to the one we just saw for EDC + GE.
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