S&P/ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) - XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-15944 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by iminvestor101 ↑

its 4.48am here and i am watching ndx futures tumble and the US10 soar and yet the bears are not out in cheer.

am i the only one left with capital and conviction that the market top is in? i still think Baron1 is on the money to indicate that a top is in but hey, how many times have we made this call right?

in any case, i wont be adding anymore to my short but instead ill be adding to my fixed income portfolio should the us10 decide to go higher.

as for ewebute, i think we are in a historic moment- the only moment in history where a yield curve inversion has not (yet?) resulted in a recession. its a tale of two worlds out there though. some people doing amazingly and others not so much. how long the government can sustain this is anyones guess.

i just saw australian inflation reported and i am not surprised that disinflation appears to have bottomed out. particularly when electricity inflation was 10%+ when you take out the energy subsidies the government have gifted us. its a governmental boondoggle that out tax dollars be spent this way instead of it being injected into sound energy policy. in any case, so much for any interest rate relief, unless the government can force the RBA to make a mistake and cut, but i dont think they are that dumb to not want to keep their safe and cushiony jobs.

i look forward to see what the trading action brings today. i have a tee off time at 6:28 but rest assured i will be watching the ndx when the market opens. interesting times for bears moving forward?

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Just to clarify I think we are in a topping process which once done will put in a major top. I still think we can go a little higher and test the all times highs again maybe slightly over thrown them but IMO that's just part of the topping process and we are almost done. Hence I am not short yet but will be soon. I do not see any serious major upside left.

No market goes down in a straight line so I expect bounces and bear market rallies along the way, but my first real target is the 4100 area on the S&P which I see being done in two real down legs (lot of gaps). As I said I do expect a bounce in between followed by what maybe a strong bear market rally off the 4100 area but that is where I think we are heading first.

Note I said bear market rally because once that bounce is done I see the start of the real bear market. Simply put I see a crash meaning we are ultimately going lower than 4100 IMO. Housing will also be hit just as hard IMO despite all the BS about housing supply and demand and foreign ownership, heard it all before.

Worked in real estate for two decades and they always made the same arguments each time and housing still went to hell in a handbasket as it will again. Funny its always the same old its different this time hehehe. Just to be clear I only ever refer to US markets in these discussions as the ASX will simply follow along and has no real bearing.

Also please note, when I say markets could go a little higher I mean a little, no real gas left in the tank now IMO. The 4100 target is my 2024 I see us hitting that level this year followed by a decent bounce. Next year the real crash begins IMO. Good luck all but now I will sit back not say much and wait, going to be a fun ride once again, IMO of course hehehe.

P.S. I try not to post too much these days as this is as bullish as I get and it upsets a few . A serious course in wealth transfer 101 incoming for most investors/traders IMO.