over 30 years since the last one and so most peopl, page-5

alarm bells Michael Maher: OK, you say it's not a high probability that it will become human-to-human, but let's take the worst-case scenario. If that does happen, how many fatalities could we be looking at?

Dr Alan Hampson: Well, I guess international and national authorities have gone through various planning exercises and scenarios and it's usual to take the Spanish influenza pandemic in 1918 as a sort of worst-case scenario. And it's generally believed that somewhere between 20 and 50 million people died in that pandemic.

We don't know why that pandemic was so severe and so it's assumed that a pandemic of that nature could occur again. Not likely, but it is possible.


It's generally believed that somewhere between 20 and 50 million people died (in the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918). It's assumed that a pandemic of that nature could occur again.