Give Reason to hold or invest in CXO, page-124

  1. 3,796 Posts.
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    Phantom - In simple terms, at the current share price pretty much all the bad outcome stuff is factored into the share price. Very little of the upside potential is factored into the share price. Fair value would appear to be above the current share price. Addressing most of your points:

    • There are signs of a restart - Core put out a 6 May announcement titled "Preparing to restart"

    • Most companies are working on long-term prices nearer US$1,500/t or higher WR1 needed to assume an upper profitable mining cost when they did their recent JORC resource and chose to use US$2,000/t as their pit shell assumption (so ore that would cost US$1,900/t to mine and process was part of the JORC resource). Even with disagreement about Core's cost structure, at those prices Core is profitable

    • China can and is increasing its sales of EV's. Any property related issues are not stopping that occurring.

    • The USA market is in a transition phase as it tries to on-shore production. A key difficulty was that China dominated if not controlled many critical metals needed for batteries and also the battery construction market. The US imposed rules whereby the battery had to be made in the USA or allied friendly countries to receive the full $7,500 credit. Many batteries were being made in China and added as a part into western assembled car's. This stopped gaining eligibility to government EV credits from 1 Jan 2024. Consumers being sensible made EV purchases before 1 Jan 2024 that they would have preferred to make after that date so as to receive the credit. This boosted 2023 EV sales and created a lull in 2024 EV sales. This creates the "flat" EV sales you note. There are indications this and some product supply issues are being addressed with strong USA EV forecasts emerging.

    • Cars are still being sold in Europe as per the link below EU sales jumped in April. EV percentage of sales continues to increase (44.1% to 47.8% is noted in the article below)
    https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-new-car-sales-jump-137-april-industry-body-says-2024-05-22/#:~:text=Electrified%20vehicles%2C%20whether%20fully%20electric,44.1%25%20in%20the%20previous%20year.
    EU new car sales jump 13.7% in April, industry body says | Reuters

    • If Core spends a period not producing then the key costs they will need to fund are staff costs and administration and corporate costs. These were $5.5m in the last quarter. Across Sep21 to Jun22 when Core was in a similar state - supporting exploration and production infrastructure but not in production they were $6.5m for the year. If Core retrenched capacity back to what it was before going into production then annual staff, admin and corporate costs should be able to be returned to some level below $10m/yr. That's a level of activity Core can fund for many years with existing cash balances.

    • Core does need to still supply out existing contracts but Atlantic lithium is currently in the market placing circa 500kt of spod and looking to achieve US$100m as a pre-payment as part of that deal. Multiple parties were prepared to engage with them on these terms. If Core does go with a flotation plant for BP33 to improve recoveries, some sort of deal like this may be possible. It would appear likely that with flotation assisted recoveries BP33 can be the source of over 1Mt of concentrate over its life. T&C's similar to what Atlantic achieve may be an option Core could explore that would provide access to capital without bank borrowing or capital raising.
    Last edited by WhatsTheTip: 31/05/24
 
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