Some posters on here seem to have short memories about Talga's stated expansion plans. To hear what Mark had to say about the subject, I suggest people listen to his last interview (the May update) where he addresses this issue in detail in the Q&A section at 37min 38sec - 42min 13sec (~5 mins duration).
Its clear from his words that their planning of increased production is being driven by enquiries and discussions with potential customers. Its worth noting that all the scenarios is the latest scoping study are based on the (economic) mining a total of around 20Mt of ore resources (see table 2), over different timescales. The total JORC resources of 35Mt are shown in table 1. They can mine it fast (2Mtpa for 16 years LOM) or slow (0.6Mtpa for 39 years LOM). If they prove up additional mineral resources, the LOM gets extended for all 3 scenarios. Note too that 20Mt is about a factor of four larger than what was proposed for the original Niska expansion (2020 scoping study) which was a total of 5.1Mt of ore (14 years LOM).
I've also done a back-of-the-envelope calculation of the NPV8 for the expanded project, based on the numbers for the original project (100ktpa for 24 years, DFS 2021) and for Niska (400ktpa for 14 years, scoping study 2020). The NPV8 (pre-tax) was US$1054m and US$3540m, respectively. By linear extrapolation, you'd have an NPV8 of ~US$5200m (600ktpa), ~US$8500m (1Mtpa), and US$16800m (2Mtpa).
All IMHO, DYOR
TLG Price at posting:
61.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)