MR, There is evidence of light oil being produced from the deeper motherlodes. Motembo (API 45) and Marti5 (mediumAPI 25). As the company has stated many times the oil in these deeper reservoir could well prove to be untypical, light API and having sat through Errol‘s presentation at the Pesa luncheon just over 18 months ago. He is rather confident that these untested Deep plays could Open a whole new game in Cuba (I note his recent comics have remapped the aerial extent of Marti significantly). It was this thesis that won Melbana the block 9 ticket anyway and the theory has proven to be correct so far.
I’m reluctant to downplay how special this field may turn out to be. I’d rather talk it up (obviously) And I think we have every reason to be positive about the Prospectivity.
With regards to the share price Imagine with just one well producing 5000 barrels oil per day limited my trucking. That would be approx 1250 barrels per day net to MAY or $25 million a year at $50 a barrel. And given the size of the resource And The soon to be released FID and field development plans Anything could happen to the share price and multiples of 30+ could apply immediately especially during the rush (750M). And by the end of 2024, if the company is not lying. There will be another two Wells in 1B, which only takes 4 to 6 weeks each to drill and that will add 5000 to 10000 barrels a day so you can double or triple the valuation that right there (1.5B-2.25B) If a tanker leaves port in 2024 it will start looking very realistic.
And I think the APF which will probably be $100-120M project in the first stage including pipeline, Andrew and Chris’s financing partners will be chomping at the bit to invest in the project. I’m guessing seismic will happen next year and the APF will happen the year after and so, with all these concrete plans in place there will be sharks throwing us $.50 to a dollar in 2024 there’s every chance of it.
This Resource is something else and it’s not a joke. I’ve never seen anything like it. There could be 5-10B bbl recoverable in block 9. Just as Chris Mckeown says “The future is Cuba. The future is Melbana”
cheers
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- Cuba Block 9: Operations Update 31 May 2024
Cuba Block 9: Operations Update 31 May 2024, page-178
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