Hi William
Bidder lodged the SS notice this morning (WED), with 87.86% which is a rise of (only) 1.01%since the 14 February notice.It is curiousthat that is so close to the threshold 1.00% that triggers the notice.I admit that I was hoping that RG would NOT hitthe 1% trigger yesterday, but it was only 1.01%.I expect that the 3Y due today will show exactlythe same figure (as at last night). Unlessthere a big surprise move very soon it looks like RG will not get 90%, even ifall the 5 instos /nominees jump his way over next 3 days.
I hope that the 87.86% truly represents everything thebidder had got at midnight last night. That leaves 12.14% held by all others. Infact I’m surprised that bidder has hit this level- he must have had perhaps halfa million accept off market in recent days, since the ASX volumes have beenlow.
Please could you updateyour figures below, if you have a more recent register. According to your postbelow you reckoned that top 3 had 8.59% and the 5 instos/ nominees 1.2%. Assumein the worst case that all that 1.2% caves in to bidder (on or off market)by Friday COB: bidder would then have 89.06%.,the top 3 (unless they change) 8.59% and all other holders 2.35%. The question thenis what is the risk that at least 0.91% out of the 2.35% held by smaller holdersaccepts or sells on market at 84c to bidder by Friday evening?I hope, since that is still over 1500 people,that if they have held this long nearly all of them will continue to hold. Theyare (mostly) not the type of holders to wait to the last minute to see which wayto jump. A few may, but not many, especially under say 20K holdings.
I would be few more comfortable if Manipur or allies boughta few hundred K on market over the next 3 days to put this result beyond doubt.
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31/05/24 14:40 Post#: 74105145
Manipur andStannningfield had continued to advance to 22 639 977 shares, up by 24 492 shares and is equivalent to 6.576%
A top individual still have 2 250 000 shares which is equivalent to 0.654%
User123 stated he has 1.3%. Therefore, the top 3 holders team has advanced to 8.59%
To my best guess, excluding RG's, top 3, insto'saccounts, there are still 175 top holders holding around 6 201 949 shares,which is 1.801%.
Therefore, the total of 6.576+1.3+0.654+1.801 = 10.331%. Let be conservative that I miscount anything, I would say thevariation is between 10.1%-10.3% blocking power.
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With the insto sides, here are the update:
Citi Corp has 2 203 601, down by 48 918 sharesfrom the same time last week
J P Morgan holds 808 465 shares, no movement.
Warbont nominees has 593, 718 shares up by 985shares.
HSBC custody nominees holds still at 330 807shares. Even though I detected that they have 3 additional accounts, with oneof 600 shares created on 16th Dec 2013 (IPO date), 13 210 shares that justcreated on the 17th of May, and 76 shares also newly created on 23rd May. Againhuh?喂 ?
Morgan Stanley Australia has 205 909 shares, downby 46 998 shares.
Insto's accounts together holds 4 142 500 shares, or 1.203%
It is hard to imagine why haven't these nominee accounts exitedyet when RG is screaming to the neck of it? Hihihi!
(20min delay)