I’ll be the first to admit that the ins-and-outs of these niche commodity markets are something that I understand little about. But the concern you raise re the size of the Nb-market etc. is exactly why I never jumped onto the WA1 bandwagon…much to my present-day annoyance (in terms of what could’ve been), I’m sure there is a lesson there somewhere.
From a cursory look, global niobium production over the last few years is sitting at approx. 83kt, and even going back multiple years is stuck in that 50 to 95kt production band. That really is a small quantity…easy for numbers to be meaningless without context, so purely for visualisation purposes the global annual supply of niobium metal equates to approximately 1,200 Hoba meteorites.
So roughly 1,200 of these:
~66t Hoba meteorite, measuring roughly 2.7m x 2.7m (7-8 g/cm3). Similar density to Nb metal ~8.5 g/cm3.
So, my point is surely such a small production band in combination with current operating mine-life (and known resources) must be a major limiting factor!? Ok, sure we can all crystal ball gaze on future demand growth, but based on recent years it doesn’t seem like its changing rapidly or at least not as quickly as some have been hoping? Fair enough if there is a push to onshore something like niobium production then the space changes quickly. But as it currently stands it seems limited, which is why I cant understand the WA1 situation. Again, happy for SH’s there, its just I don't understand the apparent change in valuation that the market has assigned, even after you acknowledge the positives that Luni has in terms of grade and depth.
Similarly, what gives with LYC sitting on 38Mt of oxide ore @ 1.07% Nb2O3...is this ultimately a victim of the global-demand situation making it an unviable option, or does it have other issues?
Anyway, glad to see a decent day in the green for DRE (been a while).
(20min delay)