$4 sp is only makes the mcap around $10b. It's absolutely what it has to be in 6 months time after the production starts. That's my target and what I am waiting for.
The oversupply narrative is also absolutely BS. I explained it on my previous post that China can only hold the lithium price as minimum around this level but can't make it any lower because they need the Australian supply. And this price works well for us well atm. LTR can make good money even at this low price.
The Chinese don't want to kill projects here otherwise the lithium price will go over the roof and their lepidolite resources and Zimbabwean resources can't supply any more than 250kt LCE combined. The world needs 1300kt LCE this year. It's written all over the forecast reports as well.
And 1300kt LCE is just for this year. You can see from the EV sales reports that the YoY increase by month is also around 34%. So, think about the LCE demand in 2025. It will increase again at least 30% and will be around 1700kt LCE.
Who is going to supply 1700kt LCE in 2025 if the Chinese keep the lithium price low? No other African resources will be able to close the supply-demand gap.
There are a lots of other things on play that lithium supply will be in trouble as well. Geopolitics, Europe will start asking Battery Passport in 2027, etc.
It is obvious that LTR is in prime position regardless of its sp today.
@DaisyA is exactly right that discovering this type of quality resource and build a high tech mine would take ten years and at least twice as much money. Yes GR, Rio, ALB, WES and others know this.
And yes even the $4 sp is cheap. In the similar environment in Sept 2020 PLS sp was 30c. That was Covid time. But after that in April 2021 it went to $1.15. The lithium price was still not good that time. Only after 7 months in Jan.2022 the sp was $3.80. Not to mention it was $5.50 9 months later.
LTR has much better position that PLS was at that time. We all know that. We just need to be a little bit more patient and don't care about the sp for now.
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