Some thoughts that are all just opinions based on being in this one for a while - I don't want you to feel like I'm just arguing against everything you're raising:
- A chunk of production costs relate to the extra expense of hired equipment. If they haven't already made moves to self-owned infrastructure I'd be surprised.
- Even if a well produced at 1mmscfd after 6-9 months, it will have produced at multiples of this for the 6 months prior.
- The wells will likely have long tails, so even if we see a similar profile to O2, stacking a number of long tails together makes for a profitable operation
- SANTOS drilled Beckler 7 and 8 underbalanced with fantastic results. There is a high likelihood that the JV would drill O3 in a similar manner.
- Page 13 of the cap raising presso alludes to perforating the Patch, which on paper will spike the decline curve back up.
- Vali is not stuffed. V1 is performing really quite well and on paper they can change zones in V2 and V3. If nothing else they can have better design for V4 and latter wells.
- The bigger issue is the ROI of Odin v Vali...it makes no sense to drill Vali at this stage, given the GSA is appearing to be half the value of the Pelican Point arrangement. AGL will have signed the GSA to attain the gas - it's as simple as that...any contract can be renegotiated to be beneficial to both parties. I'm sure AGL would take any gas over pursuing for cash.
- The hub and spoke strategy is fine. We've got to remember that this is appraisal through production. That can't be emphasised enough.
- Vali-2 per page 14 of the presso will have a completion sleeve opened to aid fluid removal...clearly they think there is a bit of potential still there
- V2 and V3 could both be recompleted in a different zone.
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