CXM centrex limited

0.00%

1.7¢

Ann: Ardmore Operations Update, page-7

First 7 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
GCRocky

293 Posts.

35

11/06/24

19:39

Post #: 74266368
Share

Originally posted by Happ: ↑

If you look at the details in previous updates, you can safely declare that they went into hiding until the next quarterly. Which is understandable, given that they misled investors about production rates in the past 6 months and concealed a massive charge from Aurizon. I assume they are scratching their heads trying to engineer a way to save their asses. Hence the less they say now the less can be used against them in the future. The only issue is that they won't get out of it easily as all misrepresentations and concealments can be traced to past announcements.

At the beginning of the calendar year the guidance was 440kt for CY2024.
In Q1 they shipped around 32kt with no inventory ramp up at the end.
In the quarterly (1) they gave guidance Q2 - 55k, Q3 - 108kt, Q4 - 136kt.
The total is roughly 330kt for CY2024 which is barely above Aurizon's renegotiated minimum volume of 325kt.

Given the delay in 25kt shipment, the shipments in the second half-year will need to be 270kt.

They did not update the market on inventory or production rate this time.

What is also concerning is that the renegotiated Aurizon minimum volumes are at 325kt pa for this and the next year. If the minimum volume for 2025 was at least 500kt (being stage 1.5 625kt production run rate) then the $4.5mln charge would surely have been lower. What it tells me is that the management is not confident at all that the production will be above 325kt next year.

Something is amiss here; I'd say prepare for more surprises in the next quarterly and half-yearly....and tax selling season before 30 June as well.

Expand

Thanks @Happ, so plenty to be concerned about based on their current run rate. Any chance we can turn this around by ramping up to 625kt and picking up some slack?
How can we have got this far to an operating mine, when it looks like it will struggle to make a profit?
Could we be saved by an increase in phosphate price if that is even on the horizon???

Last edited by GCRocky: 11/06/24
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 013 - They changed the IPO rules (and that's a good thing)

Week 24 Wrap: WW3 looms (again); US econ data tepid & silver surfing

CUV

Clinuvel shares dip, even as CEO comes back from temp leave

Gold, Brent Crude spike as Israel strikes Iran in worst-case scenario

RML

Resolution's dual-listing to 'expedite growth' – and sets stage for NASDAQ foray

MEG

Iberian expansion: Megado turns to Europe with Spanish copper mines

Zip's stunning comeback: Is this the start of a $14 revival?

AVM

'Sure to be busy': Advance's Yuquivo drilling gets off to top start with first-hole hits

ASX

ASX Ltd notches upward on sale of company meant to fix CHESS 3 years ago

HotCopper Highlights, Week 24: Israel boosts Energy; Meeka eyes production & Mag7 back

First 7 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

(20min delay)
Last 1.7¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $14.74M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Ann: Ardmore Operations Update, page-7

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 013 - They changed the IPO rules (and that's a good thing)

Week 24 Wrap: WW3 looms (again); US econ data tepid & silver surfing

Clinuvel shares dip, even as CEO comes back from temp leave

Gold, Brent Crude spike as Israel strikes Iran in worst-case scenario

Resolution's dual-listing to 'expedite growth' – and sets stage for NASDAQ foray

Iberian expansion: Megado turns to Europe with Spanish copper mines

Zip's stunning comeback: Is this the start of a $14 revival?

'Sure to be busy': Advance's Yuquivo drilling gets off to top start with first-hole hits

ASX Ltd notches upward on sale of company meant to fix CHESS 3 years ago

HotCopper Highlights, Week 24: Israel boosts Energy; Meeka eyes production & Mag7 back

Featured News

Featured News

Ann: Ardmore Operations Update, page-7

Top Stories

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 013 - They changed the IPO rules (and that's a good thing)

Week 24 Wrap: WW3 looms (again); US econ data tepid & silver surfing

Clinuvel shares dip, even as CEO comes back from temp leave

Gold, Brent Crude spike as Israel strikes Iran in worst-case scenario

Resolution's dual-listing to 'expedite growth' – and sets stage for NASDAQ foray

Iberian expansion: Megado turns to Europe with Spanish copper mines

Zip's stunning comeback: Is this the start of a $14 revival?

'Sure to be busy': Advance's Yuquivo drilling gets off to top start with first-hole hits

ASX Ltd notches upward on sale of company meant to fix CHESS 3 years ago

HotCopper Highlights, Week 24: Israel boosts Energy; Meeka eyes production & Mag7 back

Featured News

Featured News