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12/06/24
08:07
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Originally posted by moorookamick:
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Negotiations between conflicted parties have to first recognise the other's position and then probe areas of common agreement and then compromise on the remainder. Usually both parties have base red lines where they are not willing to compromise. In this case Russia would need enforceable assurances the Crimea remains Russian and that Russian Speaking Ukrainians (now Russian citizens) in Donbas are fairly treated by having a major share of autonomy. The Ukraine would want its pre 2014 borders restored (Crimea excepted) and the removal of Russian troops from the pre-2014 Ukrainian mainland Given the shenanigans by both sides from Minsk 1 to the invasion, it will be difficult to engender the necessary degree of mutual trust in order for these negotiations to start which leads me to think, one way or another that the Ukraine will end up a rump state which Russia will use as an example for Georgia, Moldova or Belarus should they consider going the way of the Ukraine post 2014. Perhaps NATO (Lithuania) blocking the land corridor between Russia & Kaliningrad via Lithuania would give NATO (Ukraine) an extra bargaining chip at a future negotiating table?
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That might seal Lithuania's fate. Russia has stated (pretty much) that's its at War with NATO. Escalation is coming, its just a matter of what form it takes.