AKO General Discussion, page-663

Sharply weaker iron ore prices in recent days have pushed Australian iron ore miners down to multi-week lows contributing to a selloff in the local share market despite fresh record highs on Wall Street.

BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are down 0.8-1.5 per cent with Fortescue and Rio Tinto weakest, while BHP has roughly halved its early fall.

Singapore iron ore futures are trading around $US105 a tonne after hitting a five-week low of $US103.35 overnight, having fallen as much as 16 per cent since hitting a 2.5-month high of $US123 on May 30th. Spot iron ore fell over 4 per cent to about $US104.00 on Monday, its lowest level since April 5th.

"The fall in iron ore prices likely reflects growing worries that China’s property sector will continue to remain a headwind despite attempts by policymakers to rescue the property sector," says CBA commodity strategist Vivek Dhar.

He says that for iron ore to trade sustainably above $US110 a tonne, the market would probably need more announcements on China stimulus.

He thinks additional infrastructure stimulus announcements are likely towards the end of the year if China is on track to "meaningfully miss" its 5 per cent economic growth target in 2024.

"Conversely, we think iron ore prices will struggle to sustainably remain below $US100 a tonnet given seaborne supply will likely exit the market below these levels," Dhar says.

"We believe seaborne supply needs to remain stable to support our view that China’s steel demand and output will remain fairly flat this year."