Ann: Origin Energy 2024 Investor Briefing, page-4

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Thursday, 13 June 2024

ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) - The dividend policy for Origin Energy has been updated to a minimum of 50%, supporting growth, notes Macquarie.

APLNG's well performance allows deferral of drilling programs, maintaining low cash costs under $4/GJ and is expected to be a robust income generator, according to the analyst.

Management highlighted the energy markets business is generating earnings certainty with positive retail customer growth and benefiting from investments in batteries and virtual power plants.

Macquarie adjusts earnings forecasts by -0.11% in FY25 and lowers the DPS to 57.5c from 60c in FY24 and 60c in FY25 from 74c.

Outperform rating and $10.52 target unchanged.

Target price is $10.52 Current Price is $9.99 Difference: $0.53 If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges). Current consensus price target is $9.89, suggesting downside of -1.0%(ex-dividends)The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 57.50 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.81. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.6, implying annual growth of 18.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 93.20 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.72. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.2, implying annual growth of 16.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources