Ann: Trading Halt - Accelerated Offer, page-23

Sorry, I think your comment of back room collusion deals that begins this thread a bit....reckless? Its getting the Insto' side wrapped about and then commencing trading on Friday ex-entitlement (@Matt777 - the ASX is T+2 settlement for purpose of settlement, it will already be trading ex-entitlement as of Friday as I suggested on other threads - you are not alone, inexperienced investors always struggle with this alas).

Its all in keeping with the prospectus timetable. Nothing untoward in getting the Insto/Soph's side done before trading begins tomorrow, in fact that is standard logical practice in such structured entitlement/rights offers.

At the big boy end of the market if a stock trading say $48.5for a $30 billion makert cap and it did a 1 for 10 shares $40 offer I'd expect the stock to sensibly trade around $47.27 to reflect the pre-raise value plus new capital and dilution effects. ([10x$48.5]+[1x$40])/11=$47.27.

At this end of the market they tend to eventually trade at the entitlement price, rather than a diluted/action equivalent price at the best of times. And this is a massive offer in dilution effects (1 for 1.22 FFS!). So after a bit of resistance I expect this to fall back to at least the $0.40. I hope I am proven wrong for existing shareholders sakes, but history says it will not trade at its $0.447 dilutionary/extra capital mathematical equivalency price [(1.22x$0.485)+(1x0.40)]/2.22 - this simple premise rather ignores the value of the options. Its a huge ask of retail, $217 million on a truer pre-entitlement market cap of say $400 million (the market cap before the usual leaky ship on it obviously played out in recent trading).

People need to bear in mind the Black and Scholes valuation of the options, if anyone quotes them, assumes arbitrage in modelling, and if the options are not liquid and tradeable that's not strictly true, at 1 for 3 and $1.00 strike with a June 2026 expiry they aint gonna be worth much vs the shares anyway. Strictly speaking they should value the share issue at above $0.40 for equivalency, but again at this end of the market, you don't get arbitrage players keep things in check.

Sorry if I offend any existing shareholders with this. I am a recent small shareholder myself and in a way hope I do not have opportunity to buy OPT on the secondary mkt at less than the $0.40 cents on occasion, whilst the offer runs (to 10 July), but strongly suspect I will - and I will likely buy there and take up my entitlement should the opportunity present itself. Hopefully the last raise before this Board actually earns its remuneration with a decent big Pharma partnership with some upfront and milestone payments, rather than going to retail with (big) cap in hand again.