Hybrids Vs PHEVs vs All Electric, page-1179

@lucky 992,

I met a very smart Zurich-based hedge fund manager about 12 months ago (reason I know she is smart is because she has generated outsized investment returns for 14 years out of 17, and at lower tracking error than major OECD equity indices); one her biggest short positions was in the EV complex and its derivatives.

She was saying that people have no idea about where the terminal value of EV's will land; indeed that in many global jurisdictions (including Australia) the end-of-life value of the EV unit would in fact be negative due to the impost in disposing of the battery, and that the only reason this is not yet evident is that the average age of EV's globally is barely more than 12 months, but once the fleet age moves into the maturity cycle the rate of valuation decay will cascade all the way up the vehicle age function.

I was skeptical about her strong pessimism and had no idea how she could have such conviction in her ideas about the future of EVs. I remember at the time thinking that even if she turned out to be correct, that it would take years for her prediction to manifest itself, and that she was probably at least 5 years too early in her call.

Well, I need to tip my hat off to her; her thesis is coming to pass much sooner that I had expected (possibly much sooner, even, that she had expected!)

Some people are able to "see the matrix" better and sooner than us mere mortals.

.