Thanks stumpytrunks, and thanks for your analysis. Based on these approximate decline curves and 2nd half 2024 forecasts, I was confident enough to purchase another parcel at 0.5 cents yesterday.
Risks going forward
- Since the JV are planning to perforate and frac the Patchawarra in Odin-1 to increase gas production (commingled production with the current production from the Toolachee), there is a risk of gas crossflow from the deeper, higher-pressured Patchawarra into the shallower, lower-pressured Toolachee. This could "reduce/kill" the Toolachee production. I hope not. The completion procedure to mitigate this risk is unknown.
- Delay getting Odin-2 online.
- Unknown initial production from Odin-2 and decline, although Odin-1 is a reasonable analogue if they only perforate the Toolachee, Epsilon interval.
Upside
- Patchawarra recompletion potential in Odin-1, Odin-2.
- Patchawarra recompletion potential in Vali-2.
Unknowns
- In the MEL Investor Presentation under key reasons to invest, they commit to a 2x-3x uplift in Odin gas production with immediate revenue impact. Based on my forecast decline at Odin-1 for the 2nd half of 2024, and initial forecast production from Odin-2, I think this uplift is about right, possibly closer to 2x.
Kind regards OldGeo
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- MEL
- Ann: MEL Investor Presentation June 2024
Ann: MEL Investor Presentation June 2024, page-15
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 32 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add MEL (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
0.5¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $6.244M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 1971941 | 0.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.6¢ | 7823136 | 13 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 1971941 | 0.005 |
14 | 14963230 | 0.004 |
9 | 15595352 | 0.003 |
5 | 16775010 | 0.002 |
2 | 45500000 | 0.001 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.006 | 7823136 | 13 |
0.007 | 2330463 | 4 |
0.008 | 1039391 | 2 |
0.009 | 2110831 | 2 |
0.010 | 1000000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.12pm 21/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
MEL (ASX) Chart |
Day chart unavailable
The Watchlist
FHE
FRONTIER ENERGY LIMITED
Adam Kiley, CEO
Adam Kiley
CEO
SPONSORED BY The Market Online