ARU 0.00% 15.0¢ arafura rare earths ltd

Ann: Critical Minerals Conference Presentation, page-39

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  1. 6,423 Posts.
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    Well my theory on why management may have chosen not have a TH on this announcement due to more big anns to follow in next two weeks AND that such would maintain positive pressure on an upward SP was indeed a pipedream - again.

    Anyway as always sheorts and their Intel know wiser and here we are again. It appears the sheorts - BEOT want a substantial raise at sub 14c and are working diligently with management to achieve such unfortunately for long term retail holders huge dilution followed in time by a consolidation.

    Regardless of our positive understandings and where we see ARU in our own timeframes - BEOT/INSTOS can not be beaten for ARU need them as do majority of juniors looking to progress to development and producers.

    What can change my view?
    1. A corker of announcement re liquidity achieved on final off take say POSCO. The other Hyundai/Kia and German debt is already locked into sp but will bump it up a bit when finally announced.
    2. If sheorts/instos reverse their strategy and push the sp north say on an above POSCO Ann hypothetically.
    Working with management having filled their bags to strengthen the SP just on FID to secure the final equity piece at a fair value on outstanding derisking achievements.
    3. A fed review similar to Northern Minerals discovering external interference - holders that have to be removed from the register - unlikely but....
    4. Perhaps none of above and sheorts/ Instos will maintain the rage until all derisking is achieved in that Nolan's indeed is delivered on time and budget with IP proven and scaling in place - akin to Lynas and their journey of a very similar nature which is a valuable guide to any ex China pathway to production yet of course ARU have many critical advantage points than Lynas did at a similar stage.

    All of which is no concern if one is long. And many more highly favorable circumstances continue to arrive externally in next 3 years when Nolan's is commissioned - every chance China will enact.....

    For the long we remain patient. For the traders on FID Ann and clearly there are some here - well their schpinkters are twitchy.




 
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