RAC 3.17% $1.53 race oncology ltd

Speculative M&A Transaction Analysis, page-711

  1. 1,267 Posts.
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    I mean, it's a pretty self-explannatory comparison. If you doubt it, I would prefer a critical review of my analysis. It would provide another level of discourse on this forum, and ultimately lead to a better understanding for everyone. You could say that Gilead overpaid for Magrolimab, but this is in hindsight and the reality is that this is what pharma will do to secure a first-in-class drug that has established efficacy and large potential. If the P3 breast cancer trial utilized a 5-day repeated every three week regimen for Bisantrene, we probably wouldn't have the opportuntiy we have today. I'd recommend reading these two PDFs carefully if you are yet to grasp first-in-class drugs.

    Boston Consulting 1.pdf
    Boston Consulting 2.pdf


    Thank you. It's honestly impossible for me to say, though I doubt they spend their time going through papers from the 70s-90s finding the gems that challenge the anthracene and reinforce the FTO inhibition models. Thus, I doubt they have made the inferences that I have, but that doens't mean they aren't capable of coming to the same conclusions.

    I think it is important to realize that investors on this forum who interpret the complexity of what I and others say and are able to contribute meaningfully represent the top 0.5% of people in Australia that understand Bisantrene. The researchers that developed Keytruda, who worked on the compound despite being told not to by Merck, were a small cohort of people that understood something to a deeper level than those around them - they were literally employed by Merck. Thus, I really just focus on trying to stay ahead of the game rather than worrying about when people behind me are going to catch up.

    The real trigger point for RAC is when multiple big pharmas realise FTO is a validated target in humans, there is a drug called Bisantrene that is on the doorstep of approval, and there isn't another clinic ready drug anywhere. They are either the pharma that owns Bisantrene, or the one scrambling to make second place. If everything plays out like I think it will, this may be one of the greatest contested buyouts on record.


    @johndprent thinks clinical validation of FTO in humans, for which I agree! That starts end of this year or early next year, and we'll probably have reliable data 6-months further down the track. That doesn't stop a licensing agreement or sponsored clinical trial eventuating in the short term, which could be any time.
    Last edited by Mason14: 15/06/24
 
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