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tangs

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16/06/24

21:21

Post #: 74341491
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Originally posted by tangs: ↑

The Ukraine war threatens Russia’s regional influence
Putin's Mediterranean dreams are hindered by his navy's Black Sea setbacks

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vision of restoring Russia to its "rightful" place as a global power has long rested on dominating the Black Sea and projecting power in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. In the years before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin largely succeeded in that goal.
With the occupation of Abkhazia following a brief war in 2008, Russia gained control of roughly two-thirds of Georgia’s Black Sea coastline. In 2014, Russia illegally annexed the strategically important Crimean Peninsula, shifting the power balance in the Black Sea and increasing the Kremlin’s influence in the Western Balkans and the South Caucasus.

But the war in Ukraine has undermined Russia’s capacity to project power and looks set to redefine its role in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.
Ukraine has disabled or destroyed approximately one-third of Russian warships in the Black Sea.
Without a total victory in Ukraine, Russia’s influence in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean and the Middle East will likely decline over time.

Of course, it doesn’t help that Russian weaponry has arguably performed poorly on the battlefield in Ukraine. Such lackluster performance could reduce interest in Russian arms in the region and elsewhere. More importantly, a weakened Russian defense industry — which has traditionally tethered other countries to Russia’s interests — would further weaken the Kremlin’s influence.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2024/06/16/world/ukraine-war-russia-influence/

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CONTD .....

The Gaza war, too, is challenging Russia’s claim that it can balance different players in Middle East. The war has driven a wedge between Russia and Israel, while Russia’s relations with Iran and its regional axis have deepened.
One wonders whether the Kremlin’s influence in the region peaked in the years before it launched its invasion of Ukraine.
If the war in Ukraine persists and Russia’s position in the Black Sea continues to weaken its influence in the Mediterranean will also wane.
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Putin started this war to re-establish russia as a "Superpower" again ......but like so much he has done in this war has acheived the exact opposite ......he has chased off allies and freinds , re-energised NATO and is now seeing russia dependant on China and losing global influence (and significance ).

The only single GREAT thing for russia is their great pile of nukes ...... the catch 22 is that to use them destoys russia along with everyone else .
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