There is far too much price anchoring happening on these threads. People remember the stock being $16 or $11 and think that means $6 is cheap. This is completely missing the obvious: the stock is de-rating in line with the fundamentals. A year ago, the stock was heading into the end of June at $15/sh. Open that quarterly, compare it to the most recent one, and you see the cold hard numbers:
- Jun 2023: Greenbushes on a 100% basis did spodumene sales of 429,000t at an average price of US$5,431/t, for total quarterly sales revenue of A$3,493,000,000.
- Mar 2024: Greenbushes on a 100% basis did spodumene sales of 182,800t at an average price of US$1,034/t, for total quarterly sales revenue of A$285,900,000.
So in simple terms, between June 2023 and March 2024:
- Sales fell -57%
- Revenue fell -92%
- Average realized Li price fell -81%
- The share price is actually only down -60%
If you annualize their March 2024 quarterly result, the stock is actually trading on 20x EV/EBITDA. So unless the lithium price recovers soon, this trend could continue. Be wary of people who carry on like "the share price has halved" as though that means it's a buying opportunity - they too are completely missing the point.
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$4.98 |
Change
-0.100(1.97%) |
Mkt cap ! $3.801B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$5.00 | $5.16 | $4.96 | $11.42M | 2.253M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
31 | 15897 | $4.98 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$4.99 | 8834 | 17 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
34 | 106868 | 5.010 |
22 | 23057 | 5.000 |
10 | 28559 | 4.990 |
18 | 127875 | 4.980 |
11 | 20340 | 4.970 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
5.020 | 32348 | 37 |
5.030 | 22321 | 30 |
5.040 | 16789 | 16 |
5.050 | 23830 | 13 |
5.060 | 36269 | 16 |
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