Arafura Rare Earths Ltd, page-784

What elephant ? The guaranteed offtake prices are around your arbitrary $130/kg mark, with ARU production costs in the mid-$30’s and ARU offtake looks like being oversubscribed… hence moves already to expand Nolan’s beyond its originally planned 4400 mt per annum.

The Chinese spot price is largely irrelevant for the first few to several operational years of Nolan’s. By the time the guaranteed offtake agreements are over, there will be an under supply for rare earths internationally, even if some of the new planned mines get up and producing within 10-15 years.