Ann: MRG HMS Binding Joint Venture to Develop HMS Projects, page-91

Thought I'd do up a quick calc to see how likely the options are to be in the money, after the renewed interest post the JV ann!

So, SOI for MRQ is roughly 2.5 Billion
At 0.3c SP, Mcap is about $7.5 Mil

For the options to be realistically be in the money if you purchase them at 0.1c, the heads need to be at at least 1.0 c per share (this is the purchase cost of 0.1c plus the exercise price of 0.8 c)

This needs to happen BEFORE December 2025, otherwise completely worthless...

For a 1 c SP, the market cap needs to be roughly $25 million - Add to this a likely cap raise for all the other activities outside of the JV, the dilution probably means a MCap of $30 mil required for a profitable SP for the options

So, is a $30 Mil Mcap by December 2025, achievable?

Thats a good 400% from here - Doable but lets look at fundamentals:
If you look at the HMS study, the NPV is about $400 Mil AUD
If we assume that stays at a similar level:
Our share of full NPV - 30% of 400 Mil = $120 Mil - Thats fully valued and operational, which reduces to 20%
To hit the MRQO threshold of $30 mil Mcap, we'd need about 10% of the NPV total, which would mean the JV could be valued at 30% of NPV ($120 mil)
So if the JV gets valued to 30% of NPV, which seems quite likely if being funded effectively and built like these groups can often do in Africa, options seem like a reasonable R/R option currently!

Always looking to have any discourse/holes picked in this!

Of course all hinges on the JV pushing quickly towards production end of 2025 like they state! Also, it seems to incentives push towards a 2mtpa run rate, not 20, but I may have read this incorrectly? This could really put a spanner in the works, as the new study may have very different metrics and be a much smaller operation than previously envisioned!

Anyway, GLTAHs and NFI, keen for any thoughts!