Ann: Opthea A$55.0m (US$36.9m) Retail Entitlement Offer Opens, page-16

@Bedger, I agree with you in principle. Though a less aggressive tone would be well advised for OPT, it's not dominated by a small group of morons like ZIP.

If I understand you correctly, you're saying that the bag of tricks has likely already been consumed by Regal and OPT insiders, along with their "in secret" teams legal and professional consultants.

In my opinion, the capital raise (CR) or dilution event was clearly telegraphed to retail investors, though the size of the CR was about double what I expected, and I thought it would arrive July not early June.

Whilst I am new to share investing, it has become abundantly clear that controlled volatility using robot trading is a thing. Obviously, Regal employs trading robots for accumulation and exit profiting. I don't think OPT will be immune to this, and I have seen it in action when we saw declines from low 60s to 48cent early June. It doesn't take a tin foil hat to imagine that looking after retail investors is not the top priority for the big players—they are in it like me to maximize their rewards. The house of Regal is both the biggest holder, reseller, and underwriter, giving them plenty of scope to continue profiting up to and including topline and beyond to commercialization. While I don't think Regal can "control" the market, they can however certainly influence it, and they are the #1 gorilla in the room for OPT. I won't be betting against their best interests.

EOFY Selling?

Personally, what I see in trading over the last few days is not EOFY driven selling by investors, rather 36~37 cents is bang on the 40-cent CR minus the OPTOB-2026 Black and Scholes 3:1 value, right?

As for OPT hitting the 20s, it's only 6.5 cents away. A bad day in the US market, a bit of an OZ market correction, a competitive announcement (even if not from a real competitor), or a bad day of EOFY selling could make it happen. My powder is dry; I'm not betting on it hitting 29 cents, but it's a possibility, albeit a low one. Whilst I won't speak directly the content of @TheAnalyst007 's mind I think he sees OPT going lower, reading between the lines you suggest there is no chance of <30cents, I think some chance.

Otherwise, I'll be closely watching the first week of July to decide on the 40-cent CR and the $1 "freebie" options, which currently seem to be priced in the market at about 3 cents per share. At the time of writing, this seems to me to be the most likely outcome for my participation in the CR. The Kelly formula suggests putting more than 50% of my capital at risk in OPT, but common sense suggests otherwise.

Giving myself lots of options going forward. @bedger, are you considering taking up in the CR?