Pediatric GvHD Market of 500 - 600, targetting hospitals that treat 50% of these, so expected patient population of say 300.
300 patients x 600,000 Treatment -> 180,000,000 USD Gross sales -> 270,000,000 AUD Gross sales
40% Margin -> 108,000,000 AUD
Minus operating costs 44 million per annum ( based on Q1 cashburn ) -> 64,000,000
Minus 25% Tax -> $48 million profit.
Share Price $1.49 on PE 36 Adults 5 x larger.
Sales ( 5 x 270,000,000 ) x 1.3 ( Adult weight adjust ) -> 1.755 Billion Sales ( USD )
50% Margin ( bioreactors ) -> 877 Million AUD
Operating costs covered by pediatric profit.
Minus 25% Tax -> 658 Million USD profit.
Share Price$19.90 PE 36
or $8.31 PE 15
CLBP
Over 1.2 million spinal fusions performed in the USA each year, with 1.8 million sufferers using prescription opioids from a pool of 30 million patients.
1% total market penetration ( 25% current spinal fusion market penetration )
Sales 300,000 at 30,000 USD per treatment -> 9 Billion USD sales -> 13.5 Billion AUD sales
30% margin ( 50% profit share with partner, bioreactors and second gen product - low cell count per treatment ) -> 4.05 Billion AUD
Operating cost covered by pediatric GvHD
Minus 25% tax -> 3 Billion profit
Share Price $91 PE 36
or $38 PE 15
CHF - Lvad with Ischemic heart failure ( Accelerated approval group )
2,500 patients x 250,000 Price -> 625 Million USD -> 950 Million AUD
20% Margin ( 50% partnership ) -> 187 Million Aud net sales
25% tax -> 140 Million Aud
Share price $4.25 PE 36
or $1.75
CHF - class 2 or 3. ( 6.5 Million sufferers total - 960,000 added annually, progressive disease, class 1 leads to class 2, leads to class 3 etc )
Inferred 1.92 Million class 2 / 3 sufferers.
1% Market penetration ~ 19,200 yearly.
19,200 patients x 250,000 price -> $4.8 Billion USD -> 7.2 Billion AUD
20% Margin ( 50% partnership ) -> 1.44 Billion Aud net sales
25% tax ->1.08 Billion AUD profit
Share Price $32.64 PE 36
or $13.44
Some of this = long lead time, and obviously hinges on initial future trial success and then approval.
10 years time.... well if GvHD gets approved alone should be a Disallowed from these prices at least.
(20min delay)