Short Term trading, analysis and TLX noise - No investors keep out, page-526

It will be interesting to see how future Illucix sales track. A few thoughts.

For the last 18 months/ 6 quarters, Telix' market share has increased by ~1-1.5% per quarter on average. This would be highly irritating to Lantheus, but Pylarify remains the dominant player and I always think it's a bit risky to cultivate a partisan contempt for competitors. These guys are not bunnies, they've done a good job and have a good product. If Telix can keep eating away at that, then great, but there's no suggestion yet that the market is going to suddenly shift to Illucix.

I would, of course, love to be proved wrong here, and for sure I've seen the arguments that Illucix is a better product. But I'd suggest that it's a reasonable possibility that Illucix will level off in the 35-40% market share region. It'll be interesting to see long term how Illucix 2.0 has an impact here too.

Most of the growth is coming from the increase in market size- combined Illucix and Pylarify sales grew to 1.5b last quarter (annualised). TLX has predicted a 2.3b TAM long term. Lantheus has predicted 3b. I find it interesting that both companies think there's growth to be had.

So I contend that, as has been the case for a while, it's overall market growth that will drive sales. On that basis I think ~5-10% growth per quarter should be possible for a little while yet.

On the basis of the optimistic TAMS posited, you could guess Illucix revenues could grow to AUS250-300m per quarter, and that's my "optimistic scenario.". My base case is that Illucix flattens at AUS200m per quarter, and that Zircaix will end up at least matching this in a few years.

That takes TLX to AUS1.6b revenue annually, ~13b market cap, ~$40 share price.