I don’t have much idea when it comes to charts but from a fundamental perspective I said last week on here that MIN was in a stronger position when it launched a takeover offer for AGO and explained why.
Nearly all of their debt is in USD and the AUD has weakened 200 basis points since Dec 31. The AUD value of their USD debt has increased $150m to about $4.6b using rate of 0.664. The interest cost alone will be close to $200m for this HY, well up on last HY. This doesn’t take into account the additional debt and interest costs it will have taken on in this HY due to cap commitments, sustaining investments and potential ebitda losses on some projects.
there will be considerable rehabilitation costs for yilgRn. There will be a provision and potential write down of assets. Ironically this IO projects has fetched about USD 5 more on avg than their other IO project over the last few quarters. Yes costs are higher for yilgarn but not substantially. Utah’s margins would be well down on the last HY.
then there will be write down on other assets it holds such as delta lithium ltd. This was valued at $77m as at Dec 31. Lithium is well down in this HY and the decline has accelerated over the last month
Onslow is still a while away from achieving anywhere near max run rate output. Until then the costs will be amortised over a lower amount of shipments. Its net debt was substantial as at 31 Dec with a payback of many years.
The $1.3b sale value has yet to be finalised and will not be done until 2nd half of yr assuming finalisation of project conditions are met. It entered into new $750m USD facility on 5 June as a result. $200m will be deferred in any case untik prod target met and $100m chewed up in taxes. Then there’s more money they paid for bci assets and an other $200m instalment they are paying on 1 July for Onslow. P/E ratio currently is insane also
Its fin position whej it tried to take over ago was substantially better than now.
MIN Price at posting:
$54.76 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)