Nothing wrong with your math, I just put it in slightly different terms to yours. Like you said, it is 41% of the overall shareholders when you take out A2M and Bright.
31.5% of the overall shareholders need to vote in favour. So that is (31.5/41 = 77%) of the remaining small shareholders.
Now keep in mind that if shareholders vote for the loan, they will then subsequently have an equity raise thrust upon them in which they will all get diluted into obliteration.
Then also consider that A2M voting against would probably also be the trigger for their next move, such as a takeover proposal or JV proposal.
So it might actually make sense to vote against the resolution as it would negate the need for equity raising (as there would be no point if they can't make the $130M payment). If shareholders vote for the resolution, they may avoid liquidation, but they also are effectively endorsing the plan to raise capital.
Aligning with A2M would avoid immediate dilution and also give A2M a base of support to launch a takeover. A2M would only need to convince a few of the smaller holders that they have a better plan for Synlait than the current management and board. Just pure speculation of course
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