Put rocket under renewables for net zero’, says AEMO COLIN PACKHAM
13 hours ago
The Australian Business Network
Australia will need to install 16 times its current capacity of batteries and pumped hydro by 2050, while large-scale wind and solar generation will have to jump six fold, if the country is to deliver its transition to net-zero emissions by 2050, the country’s energy market operator says.
The forecast demonstrates the scale of the challenge of Australia’s transition away from coal, which will drastically reshape the economy and uproot regional communities.
In its latest biennial road map, the Australian Energy Market Operator said it expects coal to almost entirely have been retired by 2035 and the last traditional power station will then exit by 2038. Australia will need to quickly develop sufficient replacements to ensure reliable supplies, but demand is expected to soar as households and businesses electrify.
To meet Labor’s 2030 target of having renewable energy generate 82 per cent of the country’s power, AEMO said 55GW of new wind and solar generation will be needed – more than double the 22GW of similar projects already installed. Australia’s entire coal power fleet produces 21GW of power.
AEMO said 6GW of capacity would need to be added every year, compared to the current rate of 3GW to 4GW. Wind power is drive the transition through to 2030, complementing installations of rooftop solar systems. By 2050 there will be 58GW of large-scale solar generation and 69GW of wind power.
The Albanese government is under pressure to meet its 2030 target, which is the centrepiece of its plan to reduce emissions by 43 per cent, though it insists progress is being made.
But recent analysis compiled by The Australian showed 15 of the 79 new energy projects considered by AEMO have experienced delays.
The combined capacity of the 15 projects is nearly 3.5GW, which is larger than the output of Eraring.
To kickstart the rollout, Labor last year said it would underwrite 32GW of renewable energy and storage capacity.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen last week said projects with a combined capacity of 24GW had sought to join the scheme.
The federal government in conjunction with states had tendered for just 6GW. The scheme sees developers guaranteed a minimum return on new solar and wind projects. Should the wholesale electricity price fall below an agreed threshold, taxpayers will compensate the energy project.
Should the wholesale electricity price exceed a metric, developers pay the government, a design which removes revenue risk for developers.
But some worry the scheme will not accelerate the rollout, and AEMO’s latest report underscores the challenge. To supplement large-scale renewables, AEMO said Australia will need to quadruple rooftop solar capacity. Australia already has the highest proliferation of rooftop solar but AEMO said the nation will need 86GW by 2050 – up from the 21GW currently installed.
To compensate for so-called renewable droughts – when the sun is not shining and the wind is now blowing – Australia will need 22GW of storage capacity. This target is most likely to be filled by batteries, with the exemption of Snowy Hydro 2.0, but Australia only has 3GW of existing storage capacity.
AEMO also estimates some 10,000km of high-voltage transmission lines will need to be installed by 2050. Transmission lines have emerged as the biggest bottleneck for new large-scale capacity coming online.
Much of Australia’s existing infrastructure has now been used, and developers are waiting for the establishment of the transmission lines before committing billions of dollars to new projects.
AEMO said Australia must move quickly to establish new capacity as demand for electricity is set to soar. Homes and businesses are looking to switch from carbon-emitting fuels and are rapidly moving to electrify. Demand for electricity will nearly double by 2050, AEMO said
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