2024 Here we go again., page-704

The major issue here though is that the number of cases vs the number of people that have medical insurance don't add up. I'd love to see the stats on the % of people that can afford medical insurance in the US that suffer from the complications these therapies treat. My guess would be that amongst the numbers of people who need the treatment there is a much lower number of them that can afford medical insurance. Add to that insurance companies have very strict policies on what is covered based on the level of cover of a customer. That further reduces the number of potential customers that Mesoblast would have for their therapies. I like that people look at the number of CHF patients per year in the US, for example, and then use that number as the factor for assessing potential income streams but realists will see that within the number of CHF patients there will be a low percentage that can afford medical insurance, and even within that perhaps an even lower number of people who can afford the right level of medical insurance, and perhaps even within that a lower number who meet the strict criteria that an insurance company will have that might see them actually pay out. I think there is a general optimism out there that just because someone has medical cover that the insurance company will pay for any treatments they need, thats definitely not the case, so there should be some conservatism applied to any future earnings forecasts done by the laymen. If there is an approval in the US I am very interested to see the pivot the company makes to the other major markets, particularly the European markets.

On another note, today is the last trading day of the quarter, should we assume that the company have submitted the data for the BLA? Hard to know with these execs.