A few mentioned this offtake MOU is non binding.
It's worth remembering that this offtake is for sales in 2026 and is not nearly as important as the Carrinho offtake MOU which was BINDING. It is the Carrinho offtake that covers the bulk of stage 1 production from next year and is the pre-condition to funding.
The Foskor MOU is a good bonus and will add value but the Carrinho offtake is the main game. That is the news that should kick start the next uptrend.
After what is looking like a false break below support last week, perhaps on last ditched tax loss selling, the sp is back into its holding pattern, probably waiting on the more important Carrinho offtake and funding news. The share price bounced off the 2021 low last week. Both lows were set right near the end of June, suggesting tax loss selling drove the sp to those spike lows. We can see what happened in 2021 after that low. The sp rocketed up to 21c in just four months from what was a deeply oversold sp. I can see that happening again this time if the funding is locked in and construction begins.
After the recent cr, the current market cap is still only $47mill versus the A$300mill, after tax NPV which should be more than A$360mill now on the announced capex savings and very large increase in year 1-7 sales forecasts.
Even after diluting for all outstanding options, including from the recent cr, the fully diluted mc is still only A$56mill versus the A$300-360m after tax NPV. Some of those options won't get exercised without a much higher sp but I counted them in anyway.
For all the talk of dilution and even after allowing for further dilution, the current mc and sp still offers many multiples of upside. All it takes now is locking in the remaining finance. Confirming production next year should be all that is needed to kick off a big rally. The fundamentals support a similar quadrupling to 2021 on funding and construction news.
That would likely start off with the Carrinho offtake which should get the ball rolling on completing funding. While some have been bailing on delays, others with more patience have been accumulating with eyes on the big prize for when funding is secured.
