I've raised decoupling of RE prices several times over time. Fact is customers will choose a source based on: - Price first, - Reliability and - Environmental impact. For the last 2 Lynas is clearly first rank. They're ex-China production (so no political supply disruption), with a bunch of eco credentials such as Ecovardis and TFS. That makes Lynas a producer of choice but doesn't decouple pricing. The decoupling comes when a US buyer has to choose between a supplier that does(not) attract a 25% tariff. Or when the magnets they make may(not) attract a $30 /kg subsidy but only if the entire supply chain is friendly. In those circumstances a Lynas NdPrO product quoted at a 25-40% premium to China spot prices will be the cheapest option. I call that price decoupling and it will happen when/if magnet making in the US is established at scale. Of course it won't apply to the Japanese (our biggest market) unless they enact similar measures or they set up production in the US+Friendlies zone. Timeline? There are a number of credible magnet projects that may well land in the next 2 or 3 years. It's hard to see any other supply sources that could meet their needs and attract these incentives.
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