IMO as this war progresses, the Ukraine will be in a worse position from which to negotiate a settlement because: (a) Ukraine's chief financial & military backers are tiring of the economic and military equipment drain in supporting this proxy war and turning RW . eg: France, USA, UK and Germany etc (b) Ukraine's UAF is fast running out of boots on the ground. (c) Russia consolidating control over captured Ukrainian territories
If you are a stock market player (and HC is primarily a Stock Market Blog) then you would have to admit that to backplay Ukraine's position is a legitimate way of judging forward strategy...ie: (1) was the Ukraine in a stronger position a year ago? IMO yes (2) was the Ukraine in a stronger position 2 years ago? IMO yes (3) was the Ukraine in a stronger position 3 years ago IMO yes.
message: "the trend is your friend"
So given that , the likelihood of the Ukraine being in a weaker position in a year's time is more likely than not.
Conclusion: Seek ceasefire & peace negations now because to do so in the future would be from a weaker position more likely than not.
Western Catalysts : US Presidential election outcome in November (Trump likely the winner) Current French Election (Likely RW control of Parliament) UK Election (soon....(RW may have balance of power) Oban Hungary Chairmanship of the EU. (pro Ukrainian war negotiated settlement)
Propaganda is fine as media fodder for the plebs and those being gutted in the trenches but it is futile when faced by economic and military realities.
