I seem to be the resident pessimist, so I might as well put on my misery-cape and fly in.
Your timing for asking this question is interesting because coincidentally I sold my free-carry parcel left over from the last capital raising just this afternoon at $1.80. Here are the factors I considered before making this decision:
I don't believe there is manipulation in the normal sense of the word. The last CR took the company away from retail holders (over 80%) and gave it to large/institutional holders (now over 80%). I believe that the new owners are prepared to let the retail ants scuttle around doing their little trades, at least while they are lifting the price up.
I believe that the early run-up after the CR was largely driven by the conviction frequently aired here that "the company wouldn't have raised so much capital if there wasn't a massive order about to land".
The early run-up has created news, which has attracted a lot of attention, which has in turn attracted a lot of buyers on the basis that "past performance is a guarantee of future performance".
These recent arrivals are likely to be nervous about adverse share price movements and may contribute significantly to negative momentum if there is a reversal in the share price.
There were only two sales announced during the quarter, and those were of insufficient value to satisfy the expectations being aired after the CR.
Therefore I expect that the quarterly report, when it is released at the end of the month, may disappoint on several points relating to revenue, cash flow, and capital management.
The quarterly therefore seems to be a likely trigger for a share price correction.
On the basis of this, I felt it reasonable to take my money off the table.
Note that none of this speaks to the long term prospects of the company. I have made a point-in-time decision about probability and short term share price movements.
DRO Price at posting:
$1.82 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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