What percent of the shorts do you recon bought back today to produce that little tiny uplift this afternoon?
How many do you recon will be buying back in the near term future to get out and done before announcements of production and spod quality and recovery rates start to flow? What about when announcements of sales of uncommitted spod produced during ramp up start to drop?
The big “bug bear” that so many alternate view commentators here have relied upon of late is questions around funding and FUD of a discounted CR to let those shorts buy back … well those concerns have just been erased - what’s left for the shorter’s to use? We didn’t even need to work with the banks - and by that I recommend a very careful consideration of what potential connections there could be between banks and entities which short …
Let me guess “but until ramp up complete there will be negative cash flows”. Is that what is next? Umm … what do they think the funding just received via tier one offtake LG Energy is for?
“But they might strike issues with plant tuning to reach desired recoveries” … umm that’s what staged commissioning that is happening now is for and funding for ramp up is about - so again the funding just received answers that one.
“But the spod price might keep slipping” … right, so do we anticipate the future lithia demand predictions are going to significantly reverse (despite EV uptake data let alone standing energy storage demands - eg Tesla energy division I believe is recently been valued at more than all ASX companies other than BHP and it’s early in its development of market)? Do we expect that higher cost curve producers (higher than LTR) will keep supplying? Do we expect funding not yet locked in for next tranche mines still in explorer or project design stage will be continued in such market? Do we expect tier one offtake partners with need to access high ESG and IRA compliant lithia will accept non-compliant lithia elsewhere? “The answer to lower spod prices is lower spod prices and those producing will take benefit from that movement” LTR with this funding is set to be one of those producing.
So - celebrating a swing with just a little uptick in SP today - nope I’m seeing this LG Energy deal as a massive positive underlining for the entire lithium industry. They (LG) know their customer future demands and they know what quantity of quality and compliant Lithia input they will need to supply those customers.
We’ve just effectively “raised” at close to a 100% increase to market price - can you name another entity in the ASX which has achieved that sort of customer support in any recent times? We haven’t diluted MC, we have effectively “concentrated” MC.
I feel the game for shorters soon will be exit before the stampede!
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