As per the article i linked, CBMM and all commentators basically talk in FeNb (ferroniobium) tonnes. I was corrected yesterday in that Nb in Nb2O5 basically the same as Nb in FeNb, and FeNb is 95% of the niobium market. So WA1 likely to produce 20ktpa FeNb annually, or ~15% market ~15% of global supply.
The entry of one new ex-Brazil supplier for 15% of supply is a given. My thesis a year ago is that CBMM will eat 15% sales loss to keep the west sweet, maintain the FeNb price, and look to replace those sales with growth in demand. WA1 is priced as a certain development, the debate is over valuation now.
"The present NPV and therefore enterprise value (+some premium) that constitutes the takeover price already considers all future cashflows i.e. including cost of future capex. "... disagree. The cashflows, NPV etc by the end of DFS will not include either the stock MC or a TO cost for M&A. The effect of both added to the capex will drop the entire LOM cashflow, NPV etc as per a random example below. The situation is crystal clear for BHP and any TO, not well understood doe shareholders who are glued to the DFS study presentation that never includes upfront costs other than capex.. "I still consider this supply constrained from the standpoint of Araxa is essentially it"... that's just crazy talk. CBMM are sitting on excess production well above total global demand, and meanwhile funding every Hail Mary idea for new niobium uses out there in the hope of stimulating more demand...
WA1 Price at posting:
$19.22 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)