doctorate in stock manipulation notes, page-20

Thanks guys,

I agree with all you have said and thanks.

Alpha, totally agree with you.
Excellent point as per usual.

It is sometimes hard to sort thru the stuff. As to the insider leaks, maybe I am a bit jaded but as you pointed out correctly the break is clearly seen on the charts before the news eventually comes out. Sure if you buy on the break you are better than most with a lower average position. Still not as good as the insiders who got the whisper in the first place. Of course for ASIC this never ever happens ... well they never seem to be able to catch anyone ... big bit of a difference.

In the end about leaks from the inside, well, some of the loved companies and ramped companies of the past have been leakier than a fishing net used as an umbrella. But at some stage it will not serve the leakers interest to leak the correct way. The source will be long and know something bad is coming, so whilst he is selling will leak and imply the news will be good when in fact it is the opposite. The leaker is looking after his own interests first second and third. He is not leaking information for the good of the company but for his own interests or position.

I remember a company recently that when the tide turned was no longer happy to speak to shareholders and was at best lax returning the calls. Such is life.

With this in mind, and knowing always a director/CEO should talk his company up, if a company has sharp rises prior to an unexpected announcement I tend always to put a black mark against them on my scoring system. If it is a pattern, I tend to view the long term prospects of the company as virtually zero. If senior management is more involved in the day to day fluctuations of the share price rather than creating long term value for shareholders, it says a lot.

When I look at some of the best performers over say the last 24 months with rises of 200% plus, there are not many that come to mind that had sharp rises prior to an announcement. Some of your favorites like the timber companies with massive rises some 400% .... the rise has been gradual and steady ... they have just got on with the game. Same with some of my favorites ABB,CEY,SFE,CTX ect ect .....

Game is about to change this year I suspect. Last year 2004 with best year rise for a decade, well, suspect the game will become much harder and it won't be a case of buy anything and it goes up.

Whilst ASIC would disagree, I of course agree with you.
My number of 10 per year was with tongue in cheek. Numbers approaching plague proportions and ASIC still totally unaware. Some very slick operators out there make a very good living out of the manipulation game. Same pattern over and over again.

Type 2 works best of course, whether the company in good faith releases incomplete bullish results or something better arranged under the table ... the results are about the same. Classic break up on rumor, partial results released, massive rally, placement ?, results out big retreat, still bid at 150-200% of starting point, a few bear rallies if they are good, back below starting point within 12 months.

Same pattern can be repeated sometimes within a 12 month period on the same share. If not, there are numerous other companies to continue with this sort of scheme on the ASX.

It is sad. Rather than argue with the promoters of various stocks I will put this all together in a massive post and have a checklist and scoring system with around 20 questions and just post this as a block under some of the companies I question and put a ranking with the probabilities beside it. As I mentioned in the original post as an example the company with partial results but nothing definitive already 300 % up on the low from 3 moths previously had 7 factors I would be concerned with ..... the probability of being ahead after 12 months buying at that level is somewhere around 1% .... in other words 99% chance of loosing.

Somehow to find a balance between a rational enthusiasm for a share you like and an irrational exuberance being fueled by promoters and scam merchants. All this at the same time as not annoying the genuine companies who are in the grips of daytraders/promoters and are blameless for what is being done to the share price such as a type one ramp.

Of course for ASIC there are only ever type one stock promotions going on. What a crock !

Cheers