By my rough calcs at the current and forward LHM prices Wolfsberg would lose approx USD5,000 per tonne of LHM or about USD44m/yr.
I just can't see who would finance the capex for a project that will also require a subsidy of USD44m/yr just to break even (ignoring any discount to be negotiated with the Saudis and already agreed with BMW).
I've been looking at a trade in EUR based on the CRML arbitrage but cant value Wolfsberg at anything but zero. I do see a possibility for value with the Tanbreez asset though but not sure how to value this.
From the DFS:
LHM futures pricing:
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