PLS chart, page-22466

Hi Folks

Three weeks to the PLS quarterly.

So it time to find out the actual price of shipped Spod that PLS achieved for the QTR, not dubious information coming out of China.

I have been producing this hand drawn chart for since the last June where I said that it's beginning to look like a bell curve. That still seems to be the case.

Lets look at the number from the last 5 Qtrs with the percentage price decline from the previous Qtr in brackets
* 3256 (32.7%) ,2240 (31.2%) ,1113 (50.3%), 804 (27.8%). The last Qtr the rate of decline eased.

When I did an estimate for the price of $US shipped Spod last Qtr I under-estimated the decline, influenced by news coming out of China I estimated $US 900-1000

My guestimate for this qtr is a further decline of between 10-15%. 10% resulting in $US724 while 15% resulting in $US683. Bell curve?

My chart starts June 2021. In digging up data from the Mar 2021 report I only found the price for 6% Spod at $US655. 5.3% Spod would be lower

So I am being conservative, despite what many may think.

Next I am looking at the bottom line revenue in $AUDm. I'll update that chart after the announcement but will look at the decline in numbers for the last 5 Qtrs. Percentage decline from the previous Qtr in brackets.

* $AUDm 844m (25.6%) , 493m (41.6%) , 264m (46.5%) and 192m (27.3%)

My guestimate for revenue this qtr is a further decline to the range $AUD170-180. I have allowed up to 3.5% increase shipped Spod to 185DMT but the movement in the AUD to USD erodes that a little.

Just my guestimates , lets see how it goes. DYOR

cheers Lies