4DS - Anything but Charting, page-30598

Hi @darrenrr, the Lodge Partners marketing article included a couple of sentences to highlight the importance of delivering 20nm. The take-home message seems to be...

• Nobody will be looking at 4DS if they fail to deliver fantastic success at 20nm, so probably no reason to expect that 60nm should be attracting attention in the US.
• Proving the metrics at 20nm is the minimum required to be industry ready.
• If PL6 is a success it "will likely" (but without any certainty) have very significant implications for the success of the company.

So in a nutshell, probably still a couple of years to go based on...

• Reasonable expectations of necessary future PL's following PL6 (e.g historic 4DS achievements timelines : PL2 & PL3 to eventually deliver PL4...& then announce PL5 & PL6).
• The industry probability of tape-out (following a node-size first attempt) being about 1 in 3, which seems very appropriate for 4DS. My guess is they'll nail 20nm with PL7 or PL8 sometime in FY2026.

It would be really great / excellent if the 2024 (PL5) share price pump turns out to be a bit more spectacular than the 2023 (PL4) share price pump, however considering the SP is already at $0.07 - $0.10, I suspect it probably won't be.