Hopefully my expectations are realistic as I have based this on all I have read and understand about CPL.
- Current resources 1.2 bill - measured & indicated 920 mill.
- Gene has mentioned in presentations "World Class" and phrases such as "You have to be big to compete".
- LordP stated in early July after speaking with management that "From first production there will be a 3 year ramp up period to 10Mt pa eventually". This was some 4 months ago well before the upgrades to resources with the inclusion of the shallow silkstone seams.
- In the video presentation both Denis Lehoux and Dermot Lane stated that the reason they joined Coalspur was due to the sheer size and quality of the resources and infrastructure.
- There are many coal mines around the world that produce over 10 mill tonnes especially with draglines which CPL are proposing to use.
- Rail capacity is 40 mill tonnes - current usage 12 mill tonnes = excess capacity 28 mill tonnes (according to Western Coal)
- Ridley port capacity 12 mil with upgraded capacity to 24-28mill tonnes within two years. Current usage approx 5 mill tonnes. (CPL presentations)
- A history of management appearing to under state and then over deliver. The announcement re TSX listing stated "we expect this level of interest to grow as the Company's profile increases in the North American investment community, particularly with the results from the Vista Pre-Feasibility".
Ultimately, we have the necessary elements for a very large mine so I guess time will tell on the eventual size and costs of production. At the end of the day maybe I will be way out with my estimates but given the above points I believe we will be north of 8 mill tonnes hopefully!!!
Regards
Danash
CPL Price at posting:
$1.29 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)