I know that this new thread is for fun (and for the impatient) so let me try to add "some science" to the forward estimate of cash flow and profit.
Basis:
1. We know that May was cash flow positive from HGO announcement but don't know the quantum.
2. I assume that HGO gets paid when the concentrate gets to Port Adelaide (and I will use the approximation that this happens with zero delay from reported Cu production number - a slight overestimate).
3. I will assume that HGO gets paid AUD$12500 per tonne of included Cu (HGO may be getting a bit better, but it needs to deduct smelter costs (5%?), but it will get some extra Gold credits (5-8%).
4. I will assume that operating costs in April, and in June, were same as May (only minus and plus ~5% either way in ore tonnage, so this assumption seems reasonable)
5. Let's say that the positive cash flow for May was $May.
6. April produced 719t Cu which is 121t Cu less than May; so as I am assuming same Costs each month, net cash flow for April was $May minus $1.5M (as 121t by $12500/t produces $1.5M)7. June produced 1025 t Cu which is 185t more than May; so as I am assuming same Costs each month, net cash flow for June was $May plus $2.3M (as 185t by $12500/t produces $2.3M)
8. Adding this together means Quarterly cash flow = 3x$May +$2.3M - $1.8M => 3x$May + $0.8M
9. Now I expect that the BOD would not have said that May was cash flow positive unless they were confident it was (with due recognition of varying payment dates, etc etc), so I am guessing that $May was in the vicinity of $1M.
10. So quarterly cash flow would then be about $3.8M.
How’s that for an assessment?!? Is impatience quelled?
As for profit, well you would then need to add a bit for this and subtract a bit for that (for newcomers, these are technical accounting terms).
