Yep. There it is. At least it's official now.
Removing NW's (BHP's) c.80kt pa of Class 1 Ni production isn't gonna have much, if any, impact on the NP, imo. Indo Ni will simply strengthen their stranglehold on the sector.
Interesting to see BHP committing to burn ~AU$900m over the next two years (i.e. CY25 & CY26) on C&M and drilling prior to the next round of can-kicking decision-making in early-2027. In many respects I can understand the dilemma for their Board and the desire to give the Indo supply disruption some time to play out before reviewing in a couple of years. Sadly, I think they'll just end up throwing good money after bad. We'll see.
The market has already anticipated what this means for dear ol' POS. Hard to imagine anyone being prepared to tip any more cash into the business as things currently stand (i.e. internal capacity and external landscape).
What narrative to sell the next CR?
Ni? Nope.
Li? Nope.
Gold exploration at Windarra? Maaaybe, but a very tough sell in this environment, notwithstanding the current strength of AUD gold. (See Ally GC's solid observations of the current difficulties for WA gold explorers on the recent MoM poddie).
Next stop: VA or some kind of adverse merger?
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