ASX Today, page-41589

What I understand to be the phenomenon observed in the current pricing of various lithium raw materials and refined products, is that raw material producers are receiving a much greater share of the value chain proceeds at the expense of refiners. That narrative has been repeated in various forums that I have seen ... and is borne out by the analysis of @anatol insofar as he has explained about the marginal producers of raw materials such as Lepidolite building out the right hand side of the cost curve and that are only viable with subsidised losses funded by vertically intergrated battery producers like CATL. The current low base for pricing therefore is indicating that it may not be sustainable and that we may have seen the bottom of the cycle. Large growth in production of refined products is an absolutely consistent requirement for the growth in EV sales that is happening.

Interestingly, it is not much different to what happened in the iron ore markets during the 2000's where marginal iron ore mines in China became uneconomic due to the efficiency of mining and exporting Australian Iron ore. Look where we are now in the iron ore space?

regards
DF