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$1.71 race oncology ltd

RAC - Crystal ball gazing, page-24

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asx11

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15/07/24

18:10

Post #: 74762584
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Originally posted by IronMike94: ↑

So $16.70-$27.85 a share is the risked npv using Masons numbers.

Going off this, the market is assigning a 3% probability of success for the CPACS opportunity.

Further, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that MST applied a 50% discount to the numbers used by Mason, so really the market is assigning a 1.5% probability of success. Hence, it's ignoring all the historic data and is valuing RAC as if it's a preclinical company.

If this is the case, I suspect the probability of success will be adjusted to around 15% by the market after positive phase 1 safety results which is the rough probability of success for an oncology drug to go through to approval. This would mean a share price of around $20/share post safety data.

Post efficacy data we can expect this to double i.e a probability of success of 30% which will equate to around $40/share.

Of course the above numbers are ignoring the historic data. I'd argue that the probability of success as at today's date should be 30% (super conservative), and hence the share price should be at $40 if it was valued accordingly.

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If you think phase 1 will add 3.7b to the market cap, then sure.

RAC Price at posting: $1.94 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $1.71		Change 0.005(0.29%)		Mkt cap ! $299.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.76	$1.79	$1.70	$247.7K	141.5K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	1509	$1.70

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.71	450	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	1509	1.700
2	7418	1.680
1	744	1.675
1	5361	1.660
1	744	1.650

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.710	450	1
1.720	600	1
1.735	650	1
1.760	650	1
1.770	2000	1

Last trade - 12.46pm 02/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

RAC (ASX) Chart